邱达

Transformer 无法通向 AGI

Transformer can't lead to AGI

人类大脑将继续指导大模型的迭代演进

Human brain will continue to guide the iterative evolution of large models

世界模型还没有找到属于她的 scaling law，机器人大脑的发育可能需要更久的时间

World models haven't found their scaling law yet. The development of robot brains may take much longer.

从 GUI → LUI → XUI，AI 产品的用户交互设计方法会完全不同

From GUI to LUI to XUI, the user interaction design methods for AI products will be completely different.

驾驭工程的兴起暗示了大模型智力的迭代已经快到尽头

Harness engineering hints the evolution of model intelligence has plateaued

不超过24个月（2028年2月前），芯片格局会发生很大变化，我会从2026年开始看空英伟达

Within 24 months (by Feb 2028), the chip landscape will change dramatically. I'll start being bearish on NVIDIA from 2026.

消费平台类的公司，我看多现在价格便宜且线下权重大的美团，至少龙珠的物理AI布局走在前面（2026Q1）

Among consumer platform companies, I'm bullish on Meituan, which is currently cheap and has a large offline presence — at least its Longzhu physical AI initiative is ahead of others (2026Q1).

AI 擅长的还是多普勒式的方法，但改变世界还需要牛顿式的闪耀

AI excels at Doppler-style approaches, but changing the world still requires Newtonian brilliance.

龙虾用的都是已有成熟技术，最值得学习的是"真人感 + AI驱动AI"的底层思考

Lobster uses existing mature technologies. The most valuable lesson is the underlying thinking of "authentic human feel + AI-driven AI".

审美品味和你内在的认知模型将永远重要

Aesthetic taste and your internal cognitive model will always matter